Podcast 45 – The Power of the Individual

Podcast 43 – Congressional Rules

After a long summer hiatus, the Dark Horse Dispatch is back in action.  We’re excited to take it to the next level.  This week we look at the role of rules in the policy-making system with a special focus on the “supercommittee” tasked with negotiating a debt-ceiling deal by November.

 

 

Podcast 41 – Bachmann Overdrive

Podcast 36 – State of the Union

Political Scientists Forecasting the Midterm Elections

The most recent issue of PS: Political Science and Politics landed in my mailbox yesterday. It contains a symposium on forecasting the midterm elections. Five articles, using a variety of methodologies, forecast the number of House seats that change from Democratic control to Republican. Here are the results in order from biggest Dem loss to least:

Campbell: Democrats -51 or -52; lose control of House to GOP

Bafumi, Erikson, and Wlezien: Democrats -50; lose control of House to GOP

Abramowitz: Democrats -43; lose control of House to GOP

Cuzan: Democrats -27 to -30; retain control of House

Lewis-Beck and Tien: Democrats -22; retain control of House

In about a week, we’ll know whose forecast was closest.

-Chip

Post-election update: Looks like Campbell was the closest and even his prediction was low.

Podcast 23: Predicting the 2010 House Elections

Brandon, Brad and Chip wax ecstatic over the 2010 House elections.

Calling Out the Media

Bravo, Mr. Kennedy.