Political Scientists Forecasting the Midterm Elections


The most recent issue of PS: Political Science and Politics landed in my mailbox yesterday. It contains a symposium on forecasting the midterm elections. Five articles, using a variety of methodologies, forecast the number of House seats that change from Democratic control to Republican. Here are the results in order from biggest Dem loss to least:

Campbell: Democrats -51 or -52; lose control of House to GOP

Bafumi, Erikson, and Wlezien: Democrats -50; lose control of House to GOP

Abramowitz: Democrats -43; lose control of House to GOP

Cuzan: Democrats -27 to -30; retain control of House

Lewis-Beck and Tien: Democrats -22; retain control of House

In about a week, we’ll know whose forecast was closest.

-Chip

Post-election update: Looks like Campbell was the closest and even his prediction was low.

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